LDS History in Context of the Strauss-Howe Generational Cycle

In 1991, William Strauss and Neil Howe proposed a system of generational cycles, each cycle having four distinct stages that lasted twenty years give-or-take. Each generational stage took its nature by reacting to the generations that preceded it, most especially by reacting to faults in the generation that directly raised it (these reactions, of course, produce other faults that cause a similar reaction in the generation to follow). All countries go through this cycle, but Strauss and Howe were specifically interested in America's.

A Crisis is followed by a High, which is followed by an Awakening, which is followed by an Unraveling, and then the cycle turns again with another Crisis. Prophets/Idealists raise Nomads/Reactives, who raise Heroes/Civics, who raise Artists/Adaptives.

It is a theory that is very interesting to me and, thus far, is doing a pretty good job of holding up. You can learn more about it at Wikipedia, at The Art of Manliness, and at LifeCourse, which is a successful company whose consultations and other services are founded on the theory.

Here are the dates since 1792. Pay attention, because this is important: In each line you have the generation type, the years, the name of the generation that was born then (not ascendant then), and the name.

High: 1792-1821, Transcendental Generation / Era of Good Feeling
Awakening: 1822-1842, Gilded Generation / Second Great Awakening

The Civil War was a freaky aberration in a cycle that Howe and Strauss have otherwise traced back to before the Elizabethan Era. It effectively reset America's cycle at the Crisis stage, skipping the Unraveling, which leaves us with the following:

Crisis: 1843-1859, Progressive Generation / American Civil War
High: 1860-1882, Missionary Generation / Reconstruction Era / Gilded Age
Awakening: 1883-1900, Lost Generation / Third Great Awakening
Unraveling: 1901-1924, G.I. Generation / World War I / Prohibition

Crisis: 1925-2942, Silent Generation / Great Depression / World War II
High: 1943-1960, Baby Boom Generation / Pax Americana
Awakening: 1961-1981, Generation X / Consciousness Revolution
Unraveling: 1982-2004, Millennial Generation

Crisis: 2005-present, Homeland Generation

When you superimpose it on to Church history you get some interesting results.

Joseph Smith was born in the High of 1792-1821, in the year 1805. He was a Prophet/Idealist. The First Vision occurred in the same period, in 1820. Moroni was in the Awakening of 1822-1842, in 1823. Joseph Smith was killed in the Crisis of 1843-1859, in 1844.

Wilford Woodruff was a Prophet/Idealist of the High of 1792-1821 as well, born in the year 1807. He was sustained in the Awakening of 1883-1900, in 1889.

Hugh B. Brown and Spencer W. Kimball were Nomads/Reactives of the Awakening of 1883-1900, born in 1883 and 1895 respectively. Spencer W. Kimball was sustained in the Awakening of 1961-1981, in 1973.

I bring up these figures because of their relevance to three dates:

1. The organization of the Church dates to the Awakening of 1822-1842, in 1830. 
2. Official Declaration-1 dates to the Awakening of 1883-1900, in 1890.
3. Official Declaration-2 dates to the Awakening of 1961-1981, in 1978.

We can learn a couple of things from this data. The first is that the births of individual people do not seem to have much influence on these dates. Smith and Woodruff were Prophets/Idealists, and Brown and Kimball were Nomads/Reactives. Hugh B. Brown, among others, however, pushed for extending the priesthood to the blacks in 1956. Had he been successful then we would have seen OD-2 (even if not by that name) in the High of 1943-1960 instead.

This would seem to be evidence for the idea that changes in the Church really do come only as fast as the main body of members is ready for those changes, rather than as a result of the specific people in charge. This is the time when the Artist/Adaptive Generation comes to dominate the culture. Artists are described thusly: "Such generations tend to be remembered for their quiet years of rising adulthood and their midlife years of flexible, consensus-building leadership. Their principle endowments are often in the domain of pluralism, expertise, and due process... These have been sensitive and complex social technicians, advocates of fair play and the politics of inclusion."

Or perhaps it was not that the Artists/Adaptives were dominant, but that the Prophets/Idealists are maturing and out of childhood. Strauss and Howe say that Prophets/Idealists "tend to be remembered for their coming-of-age passion and their principled elder stewardship. Their principle endowments are often in the domain of vision, values, and religion... These were principled moralists, summoners of human sacrifice, and wagers of righteous wars... Most came to be revered more for their inspired words than for their grand deeds."

I haven't figured that out yet.

There is one other interesting thing that I haven't mentioned yet, and here is where I put myself on the line and my fat on the fire. Even if the day of judgment won't be for a long time and this blog will likely be forgotten by then: If the organization of the Church dates to an Awakening, and both Official Declarations date to an Awakening, then I predict that an Official Declaration-3 (probably but not definitely by that name) will be made in the next Awakening. Assuming an average of 20 years per stage, this means that we should expect OD-3 somewhere between the years of 2045-2065, give or take a couple of years (since stages can be not-exactly-twenty-years-long).